Factors influencing oil price

  • OPEC's action. OPEC reports/publications can be found at http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/.
  • American Petroleum Institute's oil inventory report VS expectation. Report is released every Tuesday.
  • U.S. Energy Department's oil inventory report VS expectation. Report is released every Wednesday.
  • U.S. & China economies because they are big oil consumers. Job reports/Manufacturing reports.
  • U.S. dollar VS other currencies.


  • Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC) constitutes are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
  • US is the world biggest oil consumer, followed by China.
  • Oil-and-gas revenues account for 70% of Russia's total exports
  • 60% of Russian oil is produced in Siberia
  • The Russian government's budget is expected to need an oil price of over $100 to stay balanced between now and 2020
  • Iran is the fourth-largest proven oil reserves, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
  • Iran agreed in November-2014 to export no more than 1 million barrels per day to Turkey, South Korea, China, India, Japan and Taiwan.
  • Iran's crude exports averaged 1.4 million barrels per day in February-2014 and 1.26 million barrels per day in January-2014, the IEA reported.
  • The euro zone accounted for nearly 16% of global oil consumption in 2013.

Oil Production 2014

Country Million of barrels / day Source
World 76 http://www.investing.com/analysis/will-rising-oil-output-bring-down-prices-208026
Russia 9.9 http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=rs
Saudi Arabia 9.7 http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/169.htm
United States 6.4 http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=US&trk=m
Iran 3.7 http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/163.htm
Kuwait 2.9 http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/165.htm
Iraq 2.9 http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/164.htm
Venezuela 2.8 http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/171.htm
United Arab Emirates 2.6 http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/170.htm
Nigeria 1.9 http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/167.htm
Angola 1.7 http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/147.htm
Libya 1.4 http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/166.htm
Algeria 1.2 http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/146.htm
Qatar 0.7 http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/168.htm
Ecuador 0.5 http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/148.htm

Oil production per country: http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=US&trk=m

Long term view of oil price => 75$

U.S. Energy Department's release Tuesday of its monthly short-term energy outlook and weekly petroleum inventories report. The American Petroleum Institute will release its report on oil stocks later Tuesday, while the report from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration -- the market benchmark -- will be out on Wednesday. Oil gained some support from a weaker dollar, which makes crude cheaper for investors with other currencies and tends to lift prices. On Tuesday, the euro was up to $1.4666 from $1.4587 late Friday in New York.

Libya and Yemen could destabilize larger oil-producing nations in the region. The two countries normally produce less than 4 percent of the world's oil needs

In addition, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa and the U.S. hurricane season are adding to the risk of reduced supplies.

Oil, gold, and silver, are all coming under heavy selling pressure as the U.S. Dollar Index rallies higher by 0.43 cents to $74.63 per contract.

Commodities are taking a beating today on the back of the stronger Dollar. The United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:USO) is trading at $39.23, -0.91 (-2.27%) while the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) is trading at $149.58, -0.98 (-0.65%). These commodity declines are sending shares of market leading stocks like Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) sharply lower.

Crude oil was already collapsing to around $92 for WTI and roughly $112 for Brent during the past week or so, mostly related to the deepening debt crisis in Greece, Europe, and a stalled U.S. economy with poor employment, housing reports, and a dried-up QE2.

Countries producing oil: Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude exporter Iran, the second-strongest oil producer within the OPEC. Iraq Venezuela

2011-06-07: Saudi Arabia said oil price should be between $70 and $80 a barrel. Iraqi oil minister Abdul-Karim Elaibi said oil price should be between $100 and $120 a barrel. OPEC will increase its output ceiling by as much as 1.5 million barrels per day. That would be the first increase since September 2007. The cartel's current production is already close to 1.5 million barrels. Libya produces 1.6 millions barrels of oil daily. OPEC's meeting occurs every 3 months.

2011-06-20: Oil price drop on speculating a weakening global economy and Greece’s debt crisis will lead to reduced fuel deman.

2011-06-28: Essentially, the IEA is trying to buy time for Saudi Arabia to increase its production. Saudi oil production has increased in June and that’s expected to continue in July. Despite the increase, Saudi production remains below peak 2008 levels despite global demand reaching new highs.

Indices: USL, USO, CLQ11.NYM, sco

Strategic Petroleum Reserve(SPR), Energy Information Agency(EIA), OECD commercial inventories American Petroleum Institute release crude oil inventory every Tuesday. U.S. Energy Information Administration report crude oil inventory every Wednesday.

2011-07-05: THERE ARE FOUR MAIN PLAYERS in the global oil drama. On the demand side are the nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which includes the U.S., Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and most of Europe. And there are the non-OECD nations, which include India and China, currently in a phase of rapid economic growth.

On the supply side is OPEC, which includes Libya, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and non-OPEC nations, including Norway, Mexico and the former Soviet Union.

2011-07-12: "The dollar may be getting ready to rally over an extended period," Cameron Hanover said in a report. "The bigger question is whether the oil market will follow the euro, as it has done for most of the last four years or so."

Meanwhile, markets are awaiting information on the level of U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products.

Data for the week ending July 1 is expected to show a draw of 2.5 million barrels in crude oil stocks and a rise of 500,000 barrels in gasoline stocks, according to a survey of analysts by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

The American Petroleum Institute will release its report on oil stocks later Tuesday, while the report from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration -- the market benchmark -- will be out on Wednesday.

2011-07-12: While OPEC thinks global demand will continue to increase this year to the highest levels ever, the monthly report it released Tuesday said that demand won't grow as much as it previously expected. The cartel said daily world consumption will increase this year by 1.36 million barrels -- down from an earlier estimate of 1.38 million barrels -- to an average 88.18 million barrels.

OPEC said it cut demand expectations "as the unsteady global economy has added risks to the forecast." The report also said it's hard to estimate how much oil the U.S. will consume this year. Gasoline consumption fell ahead of the summer driving season as retail prices approached a national average of $4 per gallon. A gallon of regular has since dropped by nearly 35 cents to a national average of $3.636 on Tuesday, according to AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. It's still 92.1 cents higher than the same time last year.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday that it expects oil demand to increase 1.6 percent this year to a record 88.16 million barrels per day, nearly same as the OPEC forecast. The EIA said global oil production won't be enough to satisfy demand. The U.S. and other countries will need to keep dipping into spare supplies in coming years, the EIA said.

Reference: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obamas-SPR-oil-release-cnnm-1977710904.html?x=0&.v=4